Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 23 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 956
(N03W60) produced a B5 flare at 23/0732Z. A Type II radio sweep (582
km/s) accompanied this flare and a CME was obvious on STEREO
imagery. Region 956 continues its slow decay and is now a small beta
sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. Region
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storming. Extended
periods of southward Bz accounted for the most disturbed periods.
Transient flow from the 19 May CME likely contributed to this
disturbance.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to major storming over the next
three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is rotating
into a geoeffective position and is expected to produce storm
periods. Transient material from today's CME and the CME on 22 May
will likely contribute to the disturbed periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 070 Predicted 24 May-26 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 23 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 025/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 012/020-020/025-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
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