Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 May 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 956 (N03W46) produced a long duration B3 flare at 22/1447Z. This event had an associated Type II radio sweep (585km/s), and a coronal mass ejection was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 956 is in decay and has decreased considerably in size over the last 48 hours, however, the region still exhibits minor magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 956.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23 May. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective position on 24 May and produce active to minor storm periods on 24 and 25 May.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 072
  Predicted    23 May-25 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  008/010-010/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm 05%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%50%
Minor storm 05%20%30%
Major-severe storm 01%10%15%

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