Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N04W18) produced a long-duration B6 flare at 20/0556Z, but no evidence of an associated CME has been observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at approximately 540 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21 - 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 074
  Predicted   21 May-23 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        20 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/012-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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