Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N04W18)
produced a long-duration B6 flare at 20/0556Z, but no evidence of an
associated CME has been observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains slightly elevated at approximately 540 km/s due to a coronal
hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21 - 23
May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 074 Predicted 21 May-23 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 20 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/012-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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