Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 May 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 19 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N02W06) produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a B9 flare at 19/1302Z. A disappearing solar filament was observed from this region starting at 19/1231Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar acitivity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible active periods during local nighttime hours on 20 May. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 21 - 22 May.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 075
  Predicted    20 May-22 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        19 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  010/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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