Viewing archive of Friday, 18 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N03E07)
continues to display a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, but
has not produced any flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed
increased to approximately 600 km/s during the past 12 hours,
indicating the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods on 19 May due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect
quiet to unsettled conditions on 20 - 21 May.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 076 Predicted 19 May-21 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/020-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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