Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
956 (N02E21) was limited to the production of multiple B-class
flares during the past 24 hours. The sunspot area and magnetic
complexity underwent further enhancement today. Region analysis
continues to depict a Dkc beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. Regions
955 (S09W92) and 957 (S04W47) were spotless over the past 24 hours.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare
from Region 956.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on 17 May.
Predominantly unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm periods are possible on 19 and 20 May, due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 077 Predicted 18 May-20 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/005-010/010-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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