Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 April 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 25 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Newly numbered
Region 953 (S14E73) has partially rotated into view during the
period and produced a C2 x-ray flare at 25/2256Z. A four spot Hsx
alpha sunspot group is currently visible in white light.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 and 27 April. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 29 April. Active to minor storm conditions are
expected with the onset of the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 077 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 005/005-005/005-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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