Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 March 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 24 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 947 (S14W74) has decayed into a unipolar sunspot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storming was observed at all latitudes as the Bz component of the IMF went southward for approximately 20 hours starting late on 23 March. Solar wind speed experienced a modest increase from about 250 km/s to 360 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next two days due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Expect unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods on 27 March.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 073
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  073/073/075
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  020/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  008/008-010/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm05%20%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

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