Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 February 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 11 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There are no regions with spots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a possibility for isolated periods of minor storming from 12 - 14 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is anticipated to rotate into a geoeffective position for that period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 075
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  010/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

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