Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 February. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective
position late that day. On 12 and 13 February the geomagnetic field
is expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with
occasional periods of minor storming due to the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 076 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 012/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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