Viewing archive of Monday, 5 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare during the next
three days (6-8 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet during the past 24
hours. A solar sector boundary crossing was noted today in the solar
wind data reported by ACE. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (6-8 February)
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 083 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 082/082/080 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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