Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 February 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 01 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 940 (S04W06) has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at approximately 550 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (02 - 04 February).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Feb 090
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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