Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 January 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 31 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 940 (S04E09) has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01 - 03 February). There is a chance for isolated active periods on 01 February due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 089
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  017/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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