Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 31 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 940 (S04E09)
has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed
remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s due to the coronal hole
high speed stream. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01 - 03
February). There is a chance for isolated active periods on 01
February due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 089 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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