Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 30 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 940 (S04E21)
produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 941
(S06E56) has remained quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 940.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 650 km/s due to
the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods on 31 January. Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated
active periods are expected on 01-02 February.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 088 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 019/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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