Viewing archive of Monday, 29 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 29 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 940 (S05E35) produced a
C3/SF flare at 29/1656Z. Newly numbered Region 941 (S09E69) is
classified as an Hsx Alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 940.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Major
and severe storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. A
co-rotating interaction region indicating the onset of a coronal
hole high speed stream was observed at ACE starting at approximately
1000Z. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 700 km/s as the
IMF increased to 20 nT and the Bz component varied between +/- 15
nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Isolated
minor to major storm periods are possible on 30-31 January due to
the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 087 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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