Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 28 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 940 (S06E49)
produced two B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest
was a long-duration B3 flare at 27/2305Z. This region has developed
two new spots and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
Isolated minor to major storm periods at high latitudes are
possible on 29-30 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 082 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 012/020-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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