Viewing archive of Friday, 26 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 26 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 940 (S06E77)
rotated onto the visible disk today. This region produced a C3
flare at 25/2143Z, as well as a long duration B3 flare at 26/0951Z.
Region 940 is currently classified as an Hax Alpha sunspot group,
since only one spot is currently visible on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 940 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active for the next three days.
Isolated periods of minor storming are possible at high latitudes on
29 January, as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 080 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 005/010-008/010-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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