Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 25 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity reached low levels. A long duration C6.3
flare occurred at 25/0714 UTC off the east limb around S08. An
associated asymmetric halo CME was first observed on LASCO imagery
at 25/0654 UTC. The majority of the ejecta was directed off the east
limb with an approximate plane of sky speed of 1260 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity from the approaching
region on the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 26 and 27 January. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 28 January.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 080 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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