Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active as a coronal hole high
speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed at ACE
is currently elevated around 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 19
January. On 20 and 21 January, conditions are expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 077 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 015/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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