Viewing archive of Monday, 15 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 15 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 938
(N02E35) is the only spotted region on the visible disk. This
region produced multiple B-class flares today along with a C1/Sf
event occurring at 15/0308Z. A decay in the sunspot area was
observed during the period. Observations indicate that there is
some magnetic complexity in the leading portion of this beta sunspot
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Isolated C-class events from Region 938
remain possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective at
approximately 15/0700Z. Middle and high latitudes experienced major
storm conditions between 15/1200 and 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on 16 and
17 January. Isolated minor to major storm conditions are possible
on these two days due to a recurrent coronal hole. A return to
predominantly unsettled levels is expected on 18 January as the
coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 082 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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