Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 06 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Regions
933 (S04W14) and 935 (SO6E10) were quiet and stable. New Region 936
(N10E43) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from
Regions 933 and 935.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic was quiet. Solar wind speed has been in a gradual
decline over the past 48 hours and finished the period near 450
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 087 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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