Viewing archive of Friday, 5 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 05 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 620 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (06 - 08 January).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 089
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/008-005/015-005/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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