Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 January 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 04 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (05 - 07 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 640 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (05 - 07 January). Active periods are possible on 07 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 089
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  011/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  010/010-008/008-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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