Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 January 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 02 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 933 (S03E40) has produced only B-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 933.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active, with a single minor storm period observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed reached a peak of approximately 650 km/s today, and remains elevated at 550 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes on 03 - 04 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect mostly unsettled conditions on 05 January.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 090
  Predicted    03 Jan-05 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  018/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  015/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%

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