Viewing archive of Monday, 1 January 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 01 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few low level B-class flares from Region 933 (S05E52), which retains its magnetic beta spot group classification. Region 934 (N03E51) was numbered yesterday and is classified as a magnetic alpha spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. The solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated at approximately 470 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm conditions for the next three days (02-04 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes on 02 and 03 January.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jan 087
  Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        01 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  001/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jan  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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