Viewing archive of Monday, 1 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 01 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity
consisted of a few low level B-class flares from Region 933
(S05E52), which retains its magnetic beta spot group classification.
Region 934 (N03E51) was numbered yesterday and is classified as a
magnetic alpha spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. The
solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated at approximately 470
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm conditions for the
next three days (02-04 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are
possible at high latitudes on 02 and 03 January.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 087 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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