Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 30 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 933 (S04E78)
produced several low level B-flares. The largest was a B3 flare at
30/0240Z. A slow moving CME from the west limb was first observed
on LASCO imagery at 29/2130Z, with an estimated plane of sky speed
of 181 km/s. This was likely associated with a disappearing solar
filament centered near S20W59. A possible glancing blow from this
westward-directed CME may arrive beyond the forecast period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 31 December and 1 January. Expect unsettled
to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods
possible at high latitudes, on 2 January as a recurrent coronal hole
moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 080 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 085/090/095 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-005/005-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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