Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 30 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 933 (S04E78) produced several low level B-flares. The largest was a B3 flare at 30/0240Z. A slow moving CME from the west limb was first observed on LASCO imagery at 29/2130Z, with an estimated plane of sky speed of 181 km/s. This was likely associated with a disappearing solar filament centered near S20W59. A possible glancing blow from this westward-directed CME may arrive beyond the forecast period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 31 December and 1 January. Expect unsettled to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods possible at high latitudes, on 2 January as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 080
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  085/090/095
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  005/005-005/005-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

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