Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 21 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. Old Region 926 (S09, L=138) is due to return to the visible disk tomorrow, and may slightly increase activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. A high speed coronal hole stream is responsible for the disturbed periods. Solar wind speed is in slow decline and ended the period near 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 22 and 23 December, with isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on 24 December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 072
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  075/080/080
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  016/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  012/015-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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