Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 20 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has increased from approximately 600 km/s to 740 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm periods are possible at higher latitudes on 21 December. By 23 December, conditions are expected to decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 072
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  015/030-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%30%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

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