Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 19 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. No solar activity was noted today and the visible disk remains void of sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on 20 December and remain geoeffective through the entire forecast period. Periods of isolated major storm conditions are possible on 21 December at the higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 073
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  010/020-015/030-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%20%10%

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