Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 16 2234 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity declined to very low levels today. Region 930 (S06W72) remains a magnetically complex region. Some decay was noted in the penumbra of the delta structure in the southern portion of the large asymmetrical sunspot. Several minor B-class flares were observed during the period from Region 930. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 930 remains capable of producing an isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions were due to the lingering effects of the transient resulting from the X3 flare that occurred on 13 December. A shock passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/1722Z which was followed by a Sudden Impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 16/1756Z (13 nT). This latest disturbance is associated with the X1 flare that occurred on 14 December. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels with isolated severe storm conditions possible on 17 December due to the effects of today's transient passage. A return to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18 and 19 December.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M60%25%10%
Class X25%05%01%
Proton25%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 082
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  080/075/075
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  048/104
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  030/040-008/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm35%10%05%
Major-severe storm35%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm40%10%05%
Major-severe storm35%05%01%

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