Viewing archive of Friday, 15 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 15 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S06W59) produced
an X1.5/2B solar flare with a 510 sfu 10 cm radio burst at
14/2215Z. Type II (1277 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were
associated with this event. The flare was accompanied by a
frontside, asymmetrical, full halo CME with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 900 km/s. Ejecta of this CME seems to be
predominately from the southwest sector of the halo.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remain a
possibility.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached severe storm levels. A 100 MeV proton
event commenced 14/2255Z, reached a 2.3 pfu maximum at 15/0015Z and
ended 15/0325Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that commenced
13/0310Z, reached a 698 pfu maximum at 13/0925Z and ended at
15/1620Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels
today. Solar wind speed has decreased to 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels. A glancing blow
from the CME late in the day of 14 December is expected to impact
the geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day one of the forecast
period (December 16). Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue into December 17. The disturbance is expected to abate to
quiet to unsettled conditions for the final day of the forecast
period (December 18).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 087 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 030/063 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 060/100 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 040/045-045/070-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 10% |
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