Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 14 2258 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W47) continues
to exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The region is
showing a possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a
possibility.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels. The ACE
satellite observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356
UTC. A sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT. Periods of major to severe
storming occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC. Solar wind
speed is currently 900 km/s. A 100 MeV proton event commenced at
13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at 13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended
at 14/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that started 13/0310
UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7 pfu. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels for 15 December.
This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December. Unsettled
to active conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 093 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 040/070 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 040/045-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 10% | 10% |
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