Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 13 2245 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05W33) produced an X3.4/4B flare with a 44000 sfu 10 cm radio burst at 13/0240 UTC. Type II (1534 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with this event, as well as a fast moving CME (estimated plane of sky speed of 1500 km/s). Region 930 has a strong delta configuration in the southern penumbral area of the leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate to high levels. Isolated X-class flares are possible from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels for the last 24 hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event started at 13/0245 UTC, and reached a maximum of 88.7 pfu at 13/0525 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event started at 13/0250 UTC, and reached a maximum of 698 pfu at 13/0925 UTC. These events are associated with the X3 event from Region 930. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major to severe storm levels. Activity from the CME observed early on 13 December is expected to impact the geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day 1 (14 December) of the forecast period. Major to severe storm conditions are expected to continue early into 15 December. Levels should decrease to unsettled to minor storming by 16 December. The greater than 100 MeV and 10 MeV proton events now in progress are expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 35%35%35%
Proton99%99%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 094
  Predicted    14 Dec-16 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  015/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  065/130-050/100-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm 25%25%15%
Major-severe storm 55%45%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm 20%20%25%
Major-severe storm 65%55%15%

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