Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 12 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S06W21) only
produced B-class activity, however, it remains a complex beta gamma
delta magnetic group. This region has increased in area to
approximately 680 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for M-flare activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods. Activity was due to enhanced solar wind speeds
coupled with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The greater than 10
MeV proton event crossed below 10 pfu's at 12/1040 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 December. On 14 December, quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods
possible. On 15 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 102 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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