Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 12 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S06W21) only produced B-class activity, however, it remains a complex beta gamma delta magnetic group. This region has increased in area to approximately 680 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for M-flare activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods. Activity was due to enhanced solar wind speeds coupled with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton event crossed below 10 pfu's at 12/1040 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 13 December. On 14 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods possible. On 15 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Dec 102
  Predicted    13 Dec-15 Dec  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Dec  012/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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