Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 December 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 09 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S04E19) produced a C1 flare at 09/1059Z. Region 930 has further decayed and now has a Beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 100 Mev proton event that began at 07/0115Z ended at 09/0735Z, and had a maximum observed flux of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues but is declining slowly. It had a maximum observed flux so far of 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10 - 12 December). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 11 December.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton95%60%30%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 092
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  017/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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