Viewing archive of Friday, 8 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 08 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 930 (S05E32)
has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours. Region
930 is no longer as magnetically complex and now has a Beta-Gamma
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Transient flow from the CME associated with the X9 event on 05
December was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately
08/0400Z. The IMF Bz component ranged between approximately +/- 10
nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z
continues, but is on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far
is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that
began at 07/0115Z continues, but is also on the decline. The
maximum observed flux so far is 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods on 09 December due to CME activity associated
with the M6 and X6 flares of 06 December. Expect unsettled to
active conditions on 10 - 11 December. The greater than 10 Mev
proton event is expected to end late on 09 December. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 12
hours.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 80% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 096 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 014/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 025/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 040/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
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