Viewing archive of Friday, 8 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 08 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 930 (S05E32) has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours. Region 930 is no longer as magnetically complex and now has a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Transient flow from the CME associated with the X9 event on 05 December was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 08/0400Z. The IMF Bz component ranged between approximately +/- 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues, but is on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0115Z continues, but is also on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods on 09 December due to CME activity associated with the M6 and X6 flares of 06 December. Expect unsettled to active conditions on 10 - 11 December. The greater than 10 Mev proton event is expected to end late on 09 December. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 12 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton80%30%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 096
  Predicted    09 Dec-11 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  014/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  025/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  040/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm 40%10%05%
Major-severe storm 20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%30%
Minor storm 45%20%10%
Major-severe storm 30%10%05%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

92%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/06/08Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:105
Current stretch spotless days:32

This day in history*

Solar flares
12013C8.4
22015C8.1
32002C5.5
41999C5.1
52011C4.7
ApG
1199529G2
2199418G1
3200314
4200112
5199612
*since 1994

Social networks