Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 07 2210 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 930 (S06E45) produced an M2 flare at 07/1913Z with a 2600 sfu Tenflare. The M2 flare had an associated CME observed on the Mk4 K-Coronameter at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory. Region 930 remains a complex moderate-sized sunspot group with a beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce further M-class flares and there is a good chance for X-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed is unknown as the recent solar energetic proton events have contaminated the ACE SWEPAM instrument, a condition expected to continue until energetic proton fluxes subside. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 07/0115Z, with a maximum observed flux so far of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm periods for the next three days (08 - 10 December). Although the magnetic cloud associated with the X9 flare and CME observed on 05 December is not expected to impact earth, a shock passage is likely; consequently, active to minor storm periods are expected on 08 December. CME activity associated with the M6 and X6 flares on 06 December is expected to cause occasional major storm periods late on 08 December and 09 December. Disturbed conditions are expected to continue through 10 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through 09 December. The greater then 100 MeV proton event appears to have peaked and, barring another injection of high energy protons, the event should end on 08 December.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
Class M 85%85%85%
Class X 40%40%40%
Proton99%80%65%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Dec 096
  Predicted    08 Dec-10 Dec  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        07 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  015/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  020/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  030/030-040/050-030/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm 30%40%30%
Major-severe storm 15%20%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%35%
Minor storm 35%45%35%
Major-severe storm 20%30%25%

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