Viewing archive of Monday, 4 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 04 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. An active region rotating onto the east limb (S06) produced eight C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C4 flare at 04/1439Z. Region 926 (S10W43) has decayed since yesterday and is now a Beta magnetic group. New Region 929 (N02E67) is classified as a Bxo-Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 5 December. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 6 December, as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Expect active to minor storm conditions, with possible major storm periods, on 7 December.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Dec 092
  Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        04 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Dec  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  005/005-010/010-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%40%
Minor storm05%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%45%
Minor storm05%15%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%

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