Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 30 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level B-class flares, all from Region 927 (N10E19). The delta configuration reported yesterday appears to have decayed during the past 24 hours. Region 926 (S10E09) was quiet and stable. New Region 928 (S07W32) emerged on the disk today as a small C-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the past 24 hours. An initially quiet field became disturbed after 0500Z due to an extended period of southward interplanetary magnetic field. Active to minor storm levels were observed initially but there was a strong substorm interval from 0800-1000Z which increased the level to major storm at some mid-latitude stations and severe storm at some high latitude sites. Conditions have been at active to minor storm levels since 1000Z. Solar wind signatures appear to be most consistent with a solar sector boundary crossing, which was also seen 27 days ago during the last solar rotation. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24 hours (1 December) as the current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (2-3 December).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 084
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  007/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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