Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 November 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 23 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. LASCO imagery shows a CME on the Southwest limb at 23/1331Z. Plane of sky speed is approximately 550 km/s. This event appears to originate from the backside and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with one period of minor storming. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active from 24 - 26 November. There is the possibility of isolated periods of minor storming for the entire forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 077
  Predicted    24 Nov-26 Nov  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  012/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  012/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 20%20%15%

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