Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 15 2207 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 924 (S08E28) produced a
C1 flare on 15/1901Z. This region was in decay, but new trailer
sunspots emerged late in the period. Region 923 (S05W20) still
maintains considerable size, but is in a slow decay phase. Region
925 (S05E38) is a small, simple beta group, which exhibited slight
growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Regions 923 and 924 have potential for isolated C-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active. A recurrent high speed
stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods
over the next thee days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 096 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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