Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 November 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 15 2207 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 924 (S08E28) produced a C1 flare on 15/1901Z. This region was in decay, but new trailer sunspots emerged late in the period. Region 923 (S05W20) still maintains considerable size, but is in a slow decay phase. Region 925 (S05E38) is a small, simple beta group, which exhibited slight growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. Regions 923 and 924 have potential for isolated C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active. A recurrent high speed stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods over the next thee days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 096
  Predicted    16 Nov-18 Nov  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  008/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm 10%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%10%05%

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