Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 November 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S05W05) produced occasional B-class flares. This region maintains it's considerable size, but has become magnetically less complex over the past 48 hours. Magnetic field maps confirm the sunspot cluster near the southeast limb is two separate regions. Both these regions, 924 (S08E44) and 925 (S06E52), are small with simple magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 15 November. A recurrent high speed stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods on 16 and 17 November.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 095
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  005/005-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%30%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%40%
Minor storm01%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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