Viewing archive of Monday, 13 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 923 (S05E07) produced a C3 flare at 12/2155Z and a C1 flare at 13/0642Z. Much of the new flux that emerged in the trailing portion of this region has now decayed. A sunspot group rotated into view on the southeast limb and was numbered today as Region 924 (S07E59). New sunspots emerged southwest of this active region, which appear to be a separate sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 500 km/s to 410 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 14 and 15 November. A recurrent high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 16 November and produce unsettled to active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 095
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  009/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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