Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 11 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S04E34) has produced only B-class activity over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A single minor storm period was observed at mid latitudes from 11/0600 - 0900Z. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s, due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be unsettled to active on 12 November. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 - 14 November.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 097
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  029/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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