Viewing archive of Friday, 10 November 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 10 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S06E58) has not produced any activity over the past 24 hours. Region 921 has rotated off the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Elevated solar wind speed due to the coronal hole high speed stream, combined with Bz varying between +/- 10 nT, produced multiple major storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 11 November as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 12-13 November.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 091
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  090/085/085
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  030/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  010/015-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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