Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 November 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 09 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S06E58) produced several B-class flares over the past 24 hours. Region 921 (S06W78) is in decay and has not produced any activity today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing throughout the day as the recurrent coronal hole moves into geoeffective position, reaching approximately 400 km/s at time of issue. The IMF strength also increased to approximately 20 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on 10 November due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 11-12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 089
  Predicted    10 Nov-12 Nov  090/085/085
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  010/020-007/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm 25%11%11%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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