Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S06E58)
produced several B-class flares over the past 24 hours. Region 921
(S06W78) is in decay and has not produced any activity today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has
been steadily increasing throughout the day as the recurrent coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position, reaching approximately 400
km/s at time of issue. The IMF strength also increased to
approximately 20 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on 10 November due to the coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 11-12
November.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 089 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 010/020-007/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 11% | 11% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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