Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 November 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 08 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 923 (S05E71) produced multiple B-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a B6 at 08/1233Z. The large leader spot in this new sunspot group is now visible. Region 921 (S06W66) produced a couple of low-level B-class flares today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There remains a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with possible minor storm periods on 09-10 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 11 November.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 086
  Predicted    09 Nov-11 Nov  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  015/025-010/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%25%
Minor storm 30%20%15%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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