Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 07 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. An active region rotating
around the east limb produced three C-class flares during the past
24 hours. The largest of these was a C6 flare at 07/1346Z. Bright
X-ray emission is seen above the east limb in GOES-13 SXI imagery,
and a very active loop structure is seen in EIT imagery. Sunspots
are just now rotating onto the visible disk. Two fast CMEs have
originated from this region during the past two days (both were in
the range of 1500-2000 km/s in SOHO LASCO imagery). ACE SIS data
shows a slight enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV and 30 MeV
protons beginning soon after the CME that was observed in LASCO
imagery at 06/1842Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from the
region rotating onto the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 08 November. Unsettled to active
conditions, with possible minor storm periods, are expected on 09-10
November. The increase is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 085 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 005/005-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
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