Viewing archive of Monday, 6 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 06 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 921 (S06W39) produced a long duration C2 flare at 06/1051Z. A C8 flare occurred at 06/1746Z, with an associated Type II radio sweep and tenflare. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicates an associated CME from the east limb at 06/1854Z. A new CME-producing active region is just starting to rotate onto the east limb as seen on EIT/SXI imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 07-08 November. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 9 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 084
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  005/005-005/005-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%45%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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